How old ghosts and new armaments threaten to awaken new conflicts
Europe stands at a dangerous crossroads. Beneath the rhetoric of unity and security, old wounds are reopening, nationalist reflexes are returning, and the European Union’s rush to spend astronomical sums on defense risks becoming a fuse for new crises rather than a protective shield.
The example of the complex and chronically fragile German–Polish relationship is telling. Despite warm proclamations of a “new beginning,” mistrust and historical memories prove resilient. Polish nationalists, particularly on the right, have long weaponized the memory of Nazi occupation as a political tool—a narrative that still resonates with voters. The previous PiS government demanded €1.3 trillion in war reparations from Berlin—a demand Germany categorically rejected. Although Prime Minister Donald Tusk sought to close the reparations chapter to repair relations, his efforts are already being undermined by new frictions at the border.
The irony is bitter. The new conservative chancellor, Friedrich Merz, seeking to reassure his party base in the face of a rising far right (AfD), reinstated border checks to project a “hard line” on migration. The move infuriated Warsaw, produced queues at borders that are supposed to be open under Schengen, and once again gave PiS populists fuel to rekindle the anti–East-German narrative. In response, Poland imposed checks on its borders with Germany and Lithuania, driving yet another wedge into the heart of European integration.
Add to this the deeper wounds from Germany’s policy of “change through trade” with Russia—a strategy Poland had long warned was a dead end, until Putin’s war in Ukraine tragically proved it so. Even now, Polish leaders remind us how history repeats itself through backroom deals and pipelines drawn “over their heads.”
In this climate of mutual mistrust, Europe is embarking on an unprecedented arms race. By 2028, member states’ defense spending is expected to reach €850 billion—framed as necessary to counter the Russian threat and reduce dependence on the United States. Yet this new arms race is unfolding without what is fundamentally missing: a genuine common defense and foreign policy. Without shared command structures, shared red lines, and shared decisions, weapons do not guarantee collective security; on the contrary, they fuel a fragmented, bellicose competition, with each state arming itself for its own purposes and national narratives.
Worse still, this colossal outlay will absorb resources that would otherwise go to social cohesion, education, health, and support for the rising generation. As social spending contracts and tanks multiply, the social contract erodes. Discontent will grow—and that will be grist to the mill of populists and extremists, who feed on fear and the sense that democracy is not working for the ordinary citizen.
The upshot? A vast defense budget without a common strategy and without political underpinnings will not only fail to protect democracy—it will undermine it. History warns us: when national wounds are left open, when borders become a playground for politics, and when migration is instrumentalized for votes, the weapons acquired readily find a target. The return of controls, tit-for-tat measures, and the instrumentalization of old territorial claims show how quickly the dream of a united and solidaristic Europe can collapse.
Today Europe needs strategic sobriety. Security is not built by armaments alone. A common defense means common decisions—about where, when, and why power will be used. Otherwise, a continent full of new weapons and empty social coffers may discover too late that it has armed itself not only to face external dangers but also to collide with its own values.
The German–Polish crisis is not a local episode; it is an alarm bell. If Europe scatters hundreds of billions on weapons while letting social cohesion and public trust collapse, it will become exactly what it fears: a continent once again haunted by old ghosts, blind ambitions, and the return of nationalism—all at the expense of European democracy.
The lesson is simple: Europe’s true defense begins at home—with trust, solidarity, and the courage to invest more in people and less in fear.