The European Union is at an existential crossroads. This is not just another difficult period but a defining moment in which its future can no longer be taken for granted. For the first time since the Cold War, the very idea of Europe—as a political and historical project—is being called into question.
The recent scene in front of President Trump’s office, with European leaders present as marginal interlocutors between the U.S. President and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, vividly captured the downgrading of Europe’s presence. The continent that once set the international game now appears more a spectator than a protagonist.
Despite its economic clout, the European Union has been confined to the role of onlooker. Its role in peace efforts on Ukraine is marginal; in Gaza it watches helplessly; and China does not regard it as an equal partner. These developments have shattered the illusion that economics alone can secure geopolitical power.
The European dream is fading, drifting away from its founders’ vision. The Union resembles a mechanism without breath, without imagination, without leadership—like a wealthy island lost amid oceans of competitors. Its leaders turn inward, fear political cost, and abandon their geopolitical responsibility. The problem lies not with external rivals but within: the voluntary demobilization of national governments from the European vision.
Despite defense spending that exceeded €800 billion in 2023, the absence of a common foreign and defense policy nullifies strategic power. When each state follows its own path, the result is not unity but fragmentation. And that does not produce security; it breeds division, feeding the ever-lurking populism.
In this context, Mario Draghi highlights three keywords for overcoming inertia: “skepticism, courage, and good debt.” Skepticism, he explains, “does not concern Europe’s values—democracy, peace, freedom, social protection—but its ability to defend them.” Courage is needed to overcome the passivity of the past fifteen years. And “good debt” is the tool that can support a new generation of investment, as Eurobonds did during the pandemic.
At the same time, the formulas of outmoded neoliberalism must be abandoned: blind faith in free trade, austerity policies, and the illusions of a globalization that has now passed. The world that produced them is gone. Europe needs to chart a new course with a social model that combines growth, cohesion, and strategic power.
History warns. After the 1929 crash, introversion and inertia opened the way to nationalism and authoritarianism. The Weimar Republic did not collapse from external invasion but from the disillusionment of its own citizens. Today, the same pattern is repeating: nationalism and populism are swelling dangerously, once again threatening the European edifice.
The dilemma is clear: either Europe finds the courage to move toward political union, regain strategic boldness, and return to its values, or it will slowly sink into disintegration. Leadership does not mean waiting for the crisis to act; it means seeing the crisis coming and mobilizing the future before the past engulfs you.
And the question that follows is this: who will inspire today’s leaders—national and European—to carry integration through to completion? Perhaps a new European movement? Or will History itself, through a deeper crisis or a tragedy, be needed to awaken responsibility? Predictions are hard; yet intuition and the study of history point clearly to the danger.