The recent agreement between the European Union and the Trump administration to accept 15% tariffs on European exports is not a triumph but a survival maneuver. As The New York Times put it with the phrase “Survive and advance,” Europe did not win but avoided a defeat, preventing a trade war with its closest geopolitical ally. This choice was not based on economic calculations—tariffs do not foster growth—but on the fear that a rupture would undermine Western unity at a time of critical challenges.
Europe often moves defensively, under the pressure of fear rather than with a strategic plan. It confines itself to “saving the round” instead of charting an autonomous course. In a world changing at a breakneck pace, it cannot afford to proceed with small defensive steps. It needs courage, cohesion, and vision—qualities that today are arguably lacking at the European level.
Support for Ukraine is a matter of strategic balance. A Russian victory would strengthen Moscow and test the EU’s credibility, without necessarily meaning that Russia plans an attack on member states. Nevertheless, instability on the eastern borders fuels insecurity and constrains European autonomy. At the same time, conflicts in the Middle East directly affect European security and intensify migratory pressures.
Despite the difficulties and U.S. pressure, maintaining the transatlantic bond is essential for the balance of the Western world. But without a common defense industry, energy self-sufficiency, and a coordinated foreign policy, Europe will continue to follow rather than lead.
The agreement with Trump shows that Europe chose realism. But realism without a strategic plan can easily turn into submission. There is only one path: a joint EU–U.S. defense doctrine. Otherwise, mistrust and confusion will weaken the Euro-Atlantic system as a whole.